Enough with this Doom Loop Nonsense!
So, ENOUGH with this DOOM LOOP NONSENSE! Is the media’s fixation on San Francisco’s struggles rooted in schadenfreude, or has the country just gone a bit soft? Let’s consider what this city must have been like in the ‘70’s and early ‘80’s. (For more on this period, see David Talbot’s brilliant history of the City by the Bay, entitled “Season of the Witch” – link below). The onslaught of hard drugs after the Summer of Love. The Symbionese Liberation Army and Patty Hearst kidnapping. The racially-fueled Zebra killers. Local power broker Jim Jones and mass-suicide in Jonestown (with most of the victims from SF). Ten days later, the assassinations of Mayor Moscone and Supervisor Milk. 5.1% population loss in the 1970’s. The arrival of the “gay cancer”, growing into the full-blown AIDS crisis. Now those seem like grim and terrifying times. Fast forward to today: Downtown SF is no doubt going through a rough patch. The future of office work, with its potential knock-on fiscal effects, is cause for concern. But a “doom loop”? It speaks to our obsession with real estate – and our amnesia about just how far cities have come – that so much of the hand-wringing has revolved around the closure of a Nordstrom, the emptying of tech offices and the defaults of institutional landlords. Talk about First World problems! Yes, quality-of-life crimes have increased, and the drug-addicted and mentally-ill may be more visible. But in the end (sadly), they’re the only ones dying on city streets. Meanwhile, this is a city with just 3.2% unemployment, and which added jobs in 2022. Where the median household income is $141,300 (with a year-over-year increase of 5.2%). Where the overall retail vacancy rate is 6%, well below the 10% threshold considered “healthy.” Where the population is growing again, and where 2022 visitation had returned to 88% of 2019 levels. Where municipal revenue is projected to rise both this year and next. And where, as opposed to the ’80’s, few people died from a deadly virus. I don’t want to minimize… but let’s get a grip.